Now that the Denver Broncos have confirmed their schedule for the 2026 NFL season, fans can see how Sean Payton’s team might fare at different points. After coming up short in the AFC Championship last year, they have been handed a tricky schedule against tough opponents, including a difficult opening gauntlet against the Chiefs, followed by the Jaguars, Rams, 49ers, Chargers, and the Seattle Seahawks.
While there’s plenty of ongoing speculation over what might happen now every team’s strength of schedule is known, fans can gauge public confidence in the Broncos presently by checking prediction markets. These have become a popular alternative to betting with sportsbooks in recent years, as evidenced by Polymarket’s 1 million+ user waitlist, offering people the opportunity to trade on yes-or-no outcomes.
There are already multiple markets involving the Broncos. And because the buy price represents the implied probability of something happening, we can see how much faith NFL fans have in Denver’s chances at the time of publishing.
Broncos Favorites in Close AFC West
Prediction markets regarding who will win the AFC West have fluctuated considerably since the NFL Draft, with both the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers experiencing big spikes and dips. These have stabilized recently, with the Broncos given the best chances of success at 37%.
While Denver will play multiple top teams, their strength of schedule falls in the middle of the pack compared to the rest of the league. Crucially, they are also considered to have the easiest run-in out of all AFC West teams.
Kansas City and the Las Vegas Raiders have the most difficult set of games out of all AFC West franchises, with their chances of winning the division adjusting slightly after the news. But the Chargers, considered to have the ninth-hardest schedule, witnessed a steep decline in their probability of winning the AFC West by 11% after their games were confirmed.
Less confidence in the Broncos’ postseason hopes
Although the above indicates that Denver is considered the strongest team in their division, other markets regarding what they might accomplish in the postseason highlight that there’s less faith in the team’s overall quality right now.
One market, asking traders which team will make the postseason, places Denver’s probability of doing so at around 48%. A whole host of teams are listed with the same percentage, indicating that the Broncos don’t stand out as a clear favorite. The only teams with chances higher than 70% are Kansas City, the Rams, Baltimore, Seattle, and Buffalo.
And while they might have earned a spot in the AFC Championship game last season, there’s less faith in the Broncos this time around. Given a 9% probability of winning the conference and winning a spot in the Super Bowl, they trail behind both the Ravens and the Bills, considered by traders to be the favorites to reach the game.
Denver seen as big outsiders to make Super Bowl LXI
Consequently, it’s not very surprising to see that Denver isn’t believed to be a strong contender to win Super Bowl LXI. While still among the 10 teams with the highest chances of success, their probability of lifting the Lombardi Trophy is just 4% on prediction markets.
Seattle is believed to be the slight favorite to go back-to-back, although they face stiff competition from their NFC West rivals, the Rams. Sean McVay’s team trails the Seahawks by just 1%, reflecting how the public believes that the two franchises are evenly matched.
However, these probabilities are not set in stone and will likely fluctuate depending on developments in the offseason and opening weeks. If the Broncos can make the right moves in the coming months and pick up big wins at the start of the regular season, then fans will be able to see their chances of success rise in real time.
